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At first, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "significant consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin continued hindering ceasefire talks, he finally introduced considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly impacted Putin's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European participation, he has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's initiative would in practice reward Putin for invading Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite strong declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal actually undermine that very independence. This constitutes a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business background, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, as if giving Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not only about dominating a destroyed swath of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious desire to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the democratic leadership that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in status the currently split regions of these areas, the plan would compel the nation to give up the whole Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been unable to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would leave Ukraine's defensive positions critically weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that are a essential barrier to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a open route to Kyiv if he later opt to resume the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would make renewed hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the numbers of its troops from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the initiative places no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate government as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and forbidden." As if to underscore this point, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. However, the proposal sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia pledge not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that Putin has broken similar treaties in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to honor the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a ceasefire and a return of captured land in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should anyone believe Russia on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the proposal warns of a "immediate unified armed reaction" in case Russia renew its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent member states from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his weakened forces, rearming, and reinvading.

International Reaction

Another side agreement according to sources would offer the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any later "major, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. But in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against additional hostilities – the success of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to react militarily to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not