Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”