A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
