Everyday Murders in the nation Drop 37% In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The average count of daily murders each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new government figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that homicide data might not point to improved countrywide safety.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

There was an mean of close to 55 killings a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the lowest number of homicides were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an ostensibly sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts cautioned that relying on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was problematic. This is particularly true given the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for gauging the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it might mask days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

However despite these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to show their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to build a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst concluded.